Russia Exits Grain Deal with Ukraine; What Will Follow?

Russia has pulled out of the Black Sea Initiative - a deal allowing Ukraine to ship its grain through Black Sea ports as part of a plan to avoid a global food crisis - a move that could re-spark threats of higher food prices and greater food insecurity on a global scale.

Since pulling out of the deal, Russia has launched attacks against Odesa - one of the three key Black Sea ports - as the Russian Ministry of Defense stated it would consider any ship bound for Ukraine to be carrying military cargo and a target. Following these announcements and other escalating actions on Russia’s part, wheat prices surged to their highest levels since the invasion began in February 2022.

Ukraine accounts for approximately 10 percent of the global wheat supply and nearly half of the world’s sunflower oil. Eliminating these flows from global trade may tighten agricultural markets putting more pressure on places experiencing hunger emergencies such as South Sudan, Somalia, Mali, and Burkina Faso.

The following article provides broad and in-depth background information on the grain deal; the level of success it’s had in alleviating food shortages around the world; Russia’s motivations for pulling out of the agreement; and how the world should and may respond to these actions and the effects those responses might provoke.

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