Rabobank Predicts Higher Domestic Use and Lower Exports for U.S. Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans

In a recent report titled “The Mighty U.S. Crop Markets Through 2030” RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness projects higher domestic usage and lower exports for U.S. corn, wheat, and soybeans, with soybeans overtaking corn area due to rising demand for soybean oil from the renewable fuel sector.

In 2023/2024 corn is expected to remain the top crop in regards to planted area. However, in the following years, Rabobank stated that soy will take over, noting that current farm economic and agronomic conditions still favor corn over soybeans. The report goes on to state that the failure of the three crops combined to break an area of 230 million acres is concerning - especially when commodity prices are at a high point - indicating that acreage appears to be maxed out under the current conditions. It also forecasted that a battle for acres will intensify if and when new demand occurs.

From 2024 onward, Rabo sees the key factor to change and direct the sector will be new U.S. soybean crushing capacity needed to meet demand for renewable fuels. Between 2023-2027, there will be an addition of 620 million bushels of capacity by the 2026/2027 crop year - a near 30 percent increase from the USDA’s forecast for soybean crush of 2.22 million bushels in 2022/2023.

Domestic demand for corn and wheat is also expected to climb in the coming years as export markets become more challenging for U.S. crops - the result of booming crops in South America, large Russian wheat crops, and high U.S. prices compared to export competitors.

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