Climate Change Will Impact Global Corn, Soy, Rice, and Wheat Supplies by 2030 - NASA
New research from NASA indicates that as early as by 2030 global supplies of corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice will look much different compared to today due to climate change.
A study published in the journal Nature Food used advanced agricultural and climate models to carry out an analysis of future global food production, concluding that increases in temperature, shifts in rainfall, and increased surface carbon dioxide levels will change agriculture as we know it decades sooner than was previously estimated.
One of the most startling findings was when using a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, corn crop yields are projected to decline by 24 percent by the end of the century. Lead author Jonas Jägermeyr admits that such a decline is surprisingly large, adding that Central Asia, the Middle East, southern Europe, the western U.S., and tropical South America are all expected to see corn output declines before 2040.
Soybeans and rice are also expected to see crop declines, however, the models used in the study could not agree on the impact these declines will have - unlike corn, which the study concluded would have “severe implications worldwide”.
However, anticipated climate changes are expected to boost wheat output, but only in certain regions, and only on a temporary basis. Areas that typically don’t grow wheat, such as the Northern U.S, Canada, North China Plains, and East Africa, will, for a while, be able to grow the crop, but yields will likely level off mid-century.