Australia’s Winter Crop Output Forecast to Fall 34 Percent

Following three consecutive bin-busting years, Australia’s total winter crop production is expected to plunge by 34 percent to 45.2 million tons for 2023/24 due to the effects of an El Niño weather pattern, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

ABARES analysts noted that the effects of past El Niño events reflect how variable the impacts can be, adding that if conditions end up being drier or hotter than expected, crop production can fall even further than forecasted in areas where winter crops have little soil moisture, particularly in more northern regions. Planted area for winter crops in the country for 2023/24 is forecast to fall year-on-year, but remain at a historic high of 23 million hectares, or 4 percent above the 10-year average to 2022/23.

Despite record acreage just when global wheat stocks are falling to a nine-year low, ABARES predicts that Australia’s wheat production will fall by 36 percent to 25.4 million tons - 4 percent below the 10-year average, and far below last year’s 39 million tons.

Canola production is predicted to fall by 38 percent year-on-year to 5.2 million tons, and barley production is expected to fall by 26 percent year-on-year to 10.5 million tons, or 6 percent below the 10-year average.

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