U.S. Ethanol Exports Could Hit Record 4 Billion Gallons by 2020 Says U.S. Grains Council
In little more than a year, U.S. ethanol exports could hit a record 4 billion gallons per year, according to chief economist for the U.S. Grains Council, Mike Dwyer.
During a discussion at the annual Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit, Dwyer stated that if his forecast is realized, ethanol exports would more than double the current export record of 1.62 billion gallons set for the 2017-2018 marketing year ending August 31, 2018.
The U.S. Grains Council works to promote exports of U.S. corn, sorghum, barley, and their value-added products, to countries including China despite the ongoing trade war with the U.S. Dwyer states that even though China imposes a duty of 70 percent on U.S. ethanol, the country will need to find a way to boost imports to meet its 10 percent blending (E10) mandate by 2020. This need could translate to China becoming the first country to import 1 billion gallons of U.S. ethanol.
Additionally, Mexico’s E10 market represents a potential 1.2 billion gallons, or 200 million gallons more than what was imported by Canada, the second largest importer of U.S. ethanol in the 2018 marketing year.
By 2022, Dwyer states that it is his belief that 75 percent of U.S. ethanol will be exported to six countries: China, India, Japan, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico.
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