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Black Sea Could be the Winner of the Trade War Between U.S., China

The Black Sea region has grown to have a major presence on the global grain market in recent years, and the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China could present even more opportunities for the regions’ grain traders.

Ukraine and Kazakhstan have made inroads into markets such as Mexico and Nigeria, taking market share away from the U.S., and now they see the possibility of gaining a foothold in China and even the EU.

In the 2017/18 season, the Black Sea’s share of the international wheat market stood at 37 percent, according to the International Grains Council. Now, last year China began buying wheat from Kazakhstan, and Russia and Ukraine increased their wheat exports to Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Spain, Tunisia, Tanzania, Sudan, Oman, Mexico, and Kenya. Furthermore, in July, Brazil bought Russian wheat for the first time in eight years.

Also, between July 2017 and May 2018, Russia more than doubled its soybean exports to China, increasing shipments from 340,000 tons to 850,000 tons in one year. And as trade tensions continue, analysts state that China may also turn to the Black Sea for their corn imports as well.

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