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Will an ADM/Bunge Merger Happen?

Sources have told Reuters that Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) has approached Bunge with a takeover offer - a move that could spark a bidding war with rival Glencore, which looked to merge with Bunge last year.

If the move comes to pass, it will be surprising to the industry given ADM’s recent strategy of distancing itself from commodities and opting to pursue value-added opportunities up the supply chain. However, as ADM is mainly focused on the U.S., a tie-in with Bunge, which controls a large portion of the market in South America, would greatly expand its international geographic reach.

Estimates are that a buy-in for Bunge would be priced anywhere between $90 to more than $100 per share, but significant overlaps in grain origination and oilseed processing would indicate that a potential deal would be subject to intense scrutiny from regulators.

But of course, there is always the chance that ADM, Bunge, and Glencore could come to a three-way agreement, splitting Bunge by downstream and upstream operations.

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