France to See Worst Wheat Yields in Thirty Years
France’s wheat farmers are expected to see their worst yields in thirty years due to heavy rainfall.
The top wheat producing country in the EU will likely see average yields in the area of 5.5 tons per hectare – 24% below the country’s five year average and the lowest since 1986. Some of the worst-hit areas in the north could even see yields at 3 tons per hectare.
This drop in yield will translate to a 25% drop in output, or the smallest harvest since 1993, while the excessive rain will likely result in poor quality wheat that will take a backseat on global markets to wheat from the Black Sea.
As of July 18, only 42% of French wheat was in good or very good condition, according to FranceAgriMer – down from 49% in good to very good condition the week before, and 76% being in good to very good condition at the same time a year before.
Earlier in the season traders were forecasting a French wheat harvest of between 36 and 38 million tons. However, now
German commodity trader BayWa is forecasting a crop of 34 million tons, Group Soufflet is forecasting a crop of 35 million tons, and CRM is estimating a crop that may fall below 30 million tons.
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