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Brazilian Soybean Output to Fall for First Time in Four Years

Brazilian soybean production is expected to fall this year for the first time in four years due to persistent drought conditions.

As harvest nears completion, for the season ending June 30, Brazil’s soybean output is estimated to be 95.6 million tons – a decline of 1.3% from the Brazilian government’s estimate issued in May.

Dry weather and high temperatures continue in the northern states of Bahia, Piauí, Maranhão, and Tocantins, leading industry analysts to estimate that average yields will decrease by 3.9% this year compared to last year, to 42.9 bushels per acre, while estimates for soybean output in the state of Mato Grosso have been cut by one million bushels as output falls to its lowest in ten years.

Conab forecasts that soybean exports will be 54.1 million tons – 0.4% lower than last season, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicted, in May, that exports would be 59.5 million tons.

Brazil’s corn crop is expected by Conab to be 76.2 million tons - 4.7% lower than its May estimate and notably lower than last year’s output of 84.7 million tons, due to low rainfall resulting in a smaller than expected crop. The agency also expects Brazil’s corn exports to be 25.4 million tons compared to its estimate in May of 28.4 million tons.

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