Australian Canola to Meet Domestics Demand, Little Else
Canola output in New South Wales and Victoria is expected to be a combined 1.1 million tons, with New South Wales producing 850,000 tons and Victoria producing 230,000 tons, respectively. Compared to last year, New South Wales is projected to see a jump in production of 14%, however, this benefit will be more than offset by a 58% drop in output in Victoria.
Total production is expected to meet local demand, which usually amounts to 950,000 tons, but there will be little to no supply available for export. In the 2014/15 season, the two states exported a total of 350,000 tons of canola, primarily to Southeast Asian markets.
"The domestic market can't afford for the canola to go to export, they need it domestically," said Jon Mulally, grains manager for Queensland-based Riverina Australia.
Windrowing in the south is expected to begin within days, and harvest is expected to begin a week to 10 days after. Overall, the growing season had been quite good until hot, windy weather hit about six weeks ago, necessitating most of the canola to be on irrigation.
At the same time that Australia will be pulling back from export demand, global production for the 2015/16 season is forecast to come in at 531 million tons, and Canada is expected to see a canola crop of 14.3 million tons – an increase in output of 1 million tons year on year based on higher yields.