Brazil Expecting Greater Corn, Soy Crops, but Less Wheat

The harvest of Brazil’s safrinha, or second corn crop, has just begun and Conab, the country’s official crop bureau, has adjusted its estimate for safrinha corn output upwards by 1.49 million tons to 49.38 million tons. This upgrade comes after beneficial rains caused farmers to sow 250,000 hectares more than what was originally expected, and will bring the country’s safrinha output for this year above last year’s 48.4 million tons.

Brazil’s safrinha corn crop will once again surpass the country’s main corn crop. Conab’s estimate for the country’s main crop has been increased by 130,000 tons to 30.8 million tons, bringing the forecast for Brazil’s total annual corn production to 80.21 million tons – 150,000 tons above last year.

Also based on an increased planting estimate, Conab raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean output by 970,000 tons to 96 million tons – a 10 million tons increase year on year, but slightly lower than the 97 million tons crop forecast by the USDA in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report.

In contrast, because of planting estimates being cut by 100,000 hectares to 2.5 million hectares, Conab is estimating Brazil’s wheat crop will fall by 300,000 tons to 6.76 million tons as a result of ‘unfavorable’ returns on wheat and a wish by farmers to keep land open for the possibility of planting soybeans. Total output is forecast to be 800,000 tons higher than last year, which may reduce the country’s need for imports.