Brief: U.S. Soybean Surplus to Grow 43% in 2016, USDA Says

As soybean production in South America increases and competition for export market share builds, U.S. soybean stockpiles are expected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to grow by 43% in 2016.

U.S. soybean inventories on August 31, 2016 are expected to be 500 million bushels, compared to 350 million bushels on August 31, 2015, according to the latest USDA report issued May 12. Comparatively, the average estimate for 2016 U.S. soybean stocks by analysts in a Bloomberg survey is 446 million bushels.

These inventories are expected to grow even though U.S. soybean production is forecast to decline by 3% from 2014, to 3.85 million bushels, as yields fall from last year’s record. In addition, U.S. exports are forecast to be 1.775 billion bushels for the year beginning September 1, down from 1.8 billion bushels in the current marketing year.

As U.S. soybean inventories grow, U.S. corn inventories are forecast to decline by a notable 5.7% to 1.746 billion bushels as of August 31, 2016, due to production declining 4.1% and consumption increases by 1% to a record rate.