Canada Trims Forecast for Grain Stocks to Multi-Year Low

Canada’s farm ministry, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), has cut its forecast for national grain stocks at the end of the 2015/16 season to their lowest in seven years on lower than expected durum supplies and higher than expected barley exports.

Forecasts for total domestic grain stocks have been reduced by 100,000 tons to 8.73 million tons representing a 21% decrease year on year. This brings expected stockpiles below 2012/13 reserves of 8.82 million tons and well below Canada’s 10 year average for annual grain reserves 0f 13.5 million tons.

Canada’s durum supply for 2015/16 is forecast to be 3% lower than 2014/15 as lower carry-in stock will override any positive production results. The AAFC has reduced its estimate for the country’s durum inventories at the end of 2015/16 by 200,000 tons to 800,000 tons, as exports are expected to remain at 4.90 million tons leaving carryout stocks to decline to near the lowest level in the past 25 years.

The ministry also forecasts increased barley exports for both this year and next, eroding supplies which it predicts will fall to a new record low at the end of 2015/16 of 500,000 tons. Expectations for non-durum wheat stocks have also been reduced to 3.6 million tons – a decrease of 28% and a new 15-year low.

Estimates for production were lessened only marginally year on year to 24 million tons. Within this estimate, is a 3% increase for spring wheat sowing, but this is vastly offset by a 33% decrease for winter wheat sowing due to a knock-on effect from a late harvest the previous year.