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Brazil Reduces Corn, Soy Harvest Estimates

Conab, Brazil’s official crops bureau, has cut its estimates for both the country’s corn and soybean harvests for 2014/15. The bureau reduced its forecast for the country’s corn harvest by 190,000 tons to 78.21 million tons, and cut its estimate for its soybean harvest by 1.32 million tons to 93.26 million tons because of a reduction to its estimates for output in various central and southern regions.

The soybean harvest is 20% complete at this point, and yields are averaging 2.65 tons per hectare, an 8.7% drop year on year. The soybean output estimate for the state of Mato Grosso was reduced by 385,000 tons to 3.45 million tons, with yields of 2.62 tons per hectare compared to a previous forecast of 2.91 tons per hectare because of “rainfall irregularities.” Output in the state of Goias was cut by 430,000 tons to 8.46 million tons on the effects of drought. In contrast, the third ranking

producing state of Rio Grande Do Sul has experienced excessive rainfall causing the spread of the fungal disease, Asian rust. Despite this, Conab has maintained its estimate for a 14.2 million ton crop from this region.

The Brazilian bureau reduced its forecast for main crop corn by 400,000 tons to 29.72 million tons from last month’s estimate on lower output in Minas Gerais because of drought and excessive rains in Santa Catarina. However, it raised its forecast for second crop, or safrinha corn, by 111,000 tons to 48.48 million tons on increased planting.

Conab’s estimates come directly before the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report in which the department is expected to also reduce its forecast for Brazilian soybean production by 500,000 tons to 94 million tons, and reduce its estimate for the country’s corn production by 380,000 tons to 74.62 million tons.

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